Do Newer Scratch-Off Games Have Better Odds? Here's the Real Answer

A lot of players swear by buying brand-new games, figuring a fresh ticket means a fresh shot at all the big prizes. There is a grain of truth to it, but it is not quite how it works. Here is the real story on whether a newer game is a better bet.

The odds on the ticket do not change

First, the important part. The overall odds printed on a scratch-off, something like 1 in 3.8, are set when the game is designed, and they do not get better or worse over time. That number describes the whole print run, from the very first ticket to the very last. A brand-new game and a six-month-old game with the same printed odds have the same odds. We break down what that number means in what overall odds actually mean.

What actually changes: the prizes still out there

Here is where the newer-is-better idea has a point. When a game is brand new, every top prize is still sitting in the pool waiting to be won. As the months go by, people win those big prizes and they are gone, even though the state often keeps selling the tickets. So you can end up buying a $20 ticket for a game whose top prizes were all claimed already. Your odds of winning something are the same, but the best prizes you could win are smaller. There is more on that in how odds change as prizes get claimed.

So, what to look for?

The lesson is not always buy new. It is buy games that still have their big prizes remaining. A newer game usually does, which is why the rule of thumb works at all. But some older games still have plenty of top prizes left, and some newer ones sold out of their best prizes fast. The launch date tells you less than the prizes remaining does. For example, one game just launched with all of its top prizes remaining, while another launched four months ago and still has all of its top prizes unclaimed too. The older game is usually the better buy, since far more of its losing tickets are already gone but the top prizes are still in the pool.

How to actually check

You do not have to guess. Most state lotteries publish how many of each prize are left, and that is exactly the data we track. Before you buy, it is worth a look at which games still have their top prizes and how much of the pool is left, instead of going by how new the game feels. That is what our most-unclaimed-top-prizes ranking and ValueScore™ are for, and it is the same habit behind checking a website before buying.

New games catch the eye, and they usually do have all their prizes still in play. But the thing actually worth chasing is not the launch date, it is how many big prizes are left. Check that, and you will do better than the folks grabbing whatever is newest on the rack.