Why an old scratch-off can look just as good on paper while being much worse to buy
Two things about a scratch-off get confused all the time. The payout percentage is decided when the tickets are printed and never moves. What is still available to win moves every day. Figures are from our database as of the second week of September 2026.
The first half is easy to demonstrate. Split the active games into those under the ones under 25% sold and those over 75% sold, and the payout figures barely differ.
| Price | Average payout, under 25% sold | Average payout, over 75% sold | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1 | 62.2% | 63.1% | +0.9 |
| $2 | 64.8% | 67.6% | +2.8 |
| $5 | 68.9% | 69.9% | +1.0 |
| $10 | 73.2% | 74.2% | +1.0 |
| $20 | 75.3% | 76.0% | +0.7 |
| $30 | 77.1% | 77.4% | +0.3 |
| $50 | 79.0% | 80.3% | +1.3 |
Every difference is within a couple of points. That reflects which games happen to be old right now more than any change inside a game. The number a lottery prints on a game at launch is the number it carries to the end.
The other half of the picture
Now the same games, scored on our ValueScore™ scale. It weighs payout alongside the odds and how much of the prize pool still remaining.
| Price | Average score, under 25% sold | Average score, over 75% sold | Drop |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1 | 43.9 | 13.8 | -30.1 |
| $2 | 49.4 | 20.8 | -28.6 |
| $5 | 63.2 | 32.4 | -30.8 |
| $10 | 75.9 | 42.7 | -33.2 |
| $20 | 85.5 | 51.2 | -34.3 |
| $30 | 88.1 | 56.1 | -32.0 |
| $50 | 84.2 | 56.4 | -27.8 |
All seven prices lose about thirty points between the first 25% of a run and the last. Nothing about the ticket changed besides the number of tickets sold and the prizes remaining.
Games under 10% sold average a score of 66.7, games from 40% to 50% average 56.4, and games past 90% average 32.2. The average payout across those same buckets stays between 69.3% and 71.9% the entire way.
| Percent of the run sold | Games | Average score | Average payout |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0% to 10% | 145 | 66.7 | 69.3% |
| 20% to 30% | 133 | 65.1 | 70.7% |
| 40% to 50% | 200 | 56.4 | 70.8% |
| 60% to 70% | 248 | 47.5 | 70.8% |
| 80% to 90% | 334 | 33.0 | 69.4% |
| 90% to 99% | 339 | 32.2 | 71.9% |
What to do with this info
The payout percentage tells you what the game was designed to return over its entire run, including tickets that have already been sold. That makes it useful for comparing games when they launch, but much less useful once those games have been on sale for a while.
At that point, what matters more is what is still left. A game can be 90% sold with all of its top prizes gone and still show the same payout percentage it had on day one, even though the remaining prize pool is much weaker. That gap is why we score games the way we do, and it is why where a game sits in its life is worth your time to check before buying.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does a scratch-off game’s payout percentage change as it sells?
No. The payout is set when the tickets are printed and does not move. Across active US games, the average payout for games under a quarter sold and games over three quarters sold differs by about one point at every price, and the late-run figure is usually the higher of the two by a rounding margin.
Is it worse to buy a scratch-off late in its run?
On payout, no. On what is left, usually yes. The average $1 game rates 43.9 on our ValueScore scale in its first quarter and 13.8 in its last, and a $50 game falls from 84.2 to 56.4. The prize table is the same; the prizes still in it are not.
How can two identical tickets be worth different amounts?
Because the prizes are printed into the run, not created when you buy. A game with all its top prizes still out is offering something a game with none of them left cannot, even though both print the same odds and the same payout percentage on the back.
Phil Nageotte is a writer covering scratch-off odds, expected value, prize data, and more. He joined ScratchCheck in 2026 after years of tracking lottery payouts in spreadsheets of his own.
