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Ranked 73rd of 107 Tickets in New York

$500,000 MATCH TO WINNew York Scratch-Off Odds & Prizes Remaining

Image Credit: New York Lottery
31
VALUESCORE
Below Avg
$5New YorkGame #1658GREEN
At a glance

$500,000 MATCH TO WIN is a $5 ticket from the New York Lottery. Only 6% of its prizes are still unclaimed. On ValueScore it earns 31/100 (Below Avg), good for 27th out of 29 $5 tickets in New York.

Overall Odds
1 in 4.16
Exp. Value
$0.65
per $1 spent
Top Prize
$500,000
Top Prizes Left
0
Prizes Remaining
6%
ValueScore™
31 / 100
Below Avg

Should I Buy This Ticket?

Expected value per $1 spent:
$0.65
↓
BELOW AVERAGE
The numbers work against it: #73 of the 107 active games we track in New York.
Why
↓Weak prize quality: relatively few of the bigger top and mid-tier prizes are still unclaimed.
  • $0.65 returned per dollar is roughly what most scratch-offs pay right now.
  • Average win frequency: about a 24% chance to win something per ticket (1 in 4.16).

Current Prize Odds

ScratchCheck estimate · Updated October 19
$500,000
0 of 3 left
launch odds 1 in 2.0M
All claimed
$2,000
0 of 10 left
launch odds 1 in 597K
All claimed
$500
27 of 618 left
launch odds 1 in 9,664
now ~1 in 13K
ScratchCheck estimate. Current odds are derived from the prizes still unclaimed and our estimate of tickets remaining, shown next to the lottery’s printed launch odds. Actual odds vary as tickets are sold and prizes claimed.

Prize Breakdown

PrizeOddsTotalLeftStatus
$500,0001 in 1,992,03330Claimed
$2,0001 in 597,610100Claimed
$5001 in 9,67061827
4%
$2001 in 1,7093,496133
4%
$1001 in 32918,169812
4%
$501 in 8074,7093,230
4%
$201 in 12547,8362,264
5%
$151 in 6295,6444,574
5%
$101 in 10597,53933,115
6%
$51 in 10597,58237,293
6%

Prize Pool Analysis

Total Payout at Launch
$19,435,230
Current Prize Pool
$914,305
Payout Percentage
4.7%
Total Prizes Remaining
81,448

Ticket Statistics

Total Tickets Printed
5,972,121
Estimated Remaining
338,824
% Remaining
5.7%
Prize pool figures use advertised prize values. Tickets printed is estimated from overall odds. Tickets remaining is estimated from the share of prizes still unclaimed.

Prize History

Top prizes left

The last $500,000 top prize was reported claimed on April 9. 1 was left on March 6, when our records for it began.

10
1
0
March 6October 19
  • April 9, 20261 claimed · 0 left

How fast it's selling

Over the last 4 weeks, about 0% of this game's prizes were reported claimed each week, well below the average for New York's $5 games (0.6% a week).

From ScratchCheck's daily record of the lottery's published prize counts. Dates are when a claim first appeared in those counts, and small prizes are often cashed days after purchase, so claims trail actual sales.

ValueScore™ Breakdown

31
VALUESCORE
Below Avg
31
out of 100
Expected Value
18/40
Prize Quality
1/25
Win Frequency
11/20
Inventory Health
0/15
Updated: 10/19/2026

Game Details

Game Number
1658
Ticket Price
$5
Start Date
6/3/2025
Payout %
65.0%
Data Source
Official
Last Updated
10/19/2026

Simulate This Game

Run a virtual scratch-off using this game's real odds.

Image Credit: New York Lottery
$5.00 per ticket · 1 in 4.16 overall odds
✓ Accounts for prizes already claimed

Entertainment only. Outcomes are random and won't match a real session. Current-odds mode scales each tier by remaining prizes and tickets.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is the $500,000 MATCH TO WIN scratch-off a good buy?
Probably not. $500,000 MATCH TO WIN scores 31/100 (Below Average) and is 27th out of 29 $5 tickets in New York. It pays back about $0.65 for every $1 spent.
What are the odds of winning the $500,000 MATCH TO WIN scratch-off?
The overall odds of winning any prize with $500,000 MATCH TO WIN are 1 in 4.16. This means roughly 1 in every 4 tickets wins a prize of any amount.
What is the top prize for $500,000 MATCH TO WIN?
The top prize for $500,000 MATCH TO WIN is $500,000. All top prizes have already been claimed. This game no longer has a top prize available, so you may want to consider a different game.
How many prizes are left in $500,000 MATCH TO WIN?
Based on our latest data, 6% of all prize tickets remain (approximately 81,448 out of 1,435,606 total). The vast majority of prizes have been claimed. This game is close to being retired.

Every $5 ticket in New York

All 29 ranked →
GameValueScoreOddsPayoutTop prize · leftClaimed per week
CASH LINES731 in 4.0964.9%$300K · 31.6%
13721 in 4.1564.9%$500K · 3-
LUCKY NUMBERS661 in 4.5165.1%$300K · 4-
LADY LUCK 25X571 in 4.2865.0%$500K · 32.1%
DOUBLE TRIPLE CASHWORD531 in 5.1464.2%$300K · 90.9%
$1,000,000 MUST LOVE DOGS521 in 4.2367.2%$1M · 10.9%
HOT DOG!521 in 4.4564.9%$500K · 21.6%
POT OF GOLD491 in 4.3566.2%$500K · 11.3%
MONEY VAULT MULTIPLIER481 in 4.2853.8%$1M · 42.8%
$500,000 MATCH TO WIN (this game)311 in 4.1665.0%$500K · 00.0%

Claimed per week: share of each game's printed prizes reported claimed per week over the last 4 weeks, from our daily records of the lottery's prize counts.