Christmas scratch-offs do not have better odds than regular tickets
Holiday scratch-offs arrive in most states around this time of year in the fall, in snowflake packaging and gift-sized denominations. We did research into holiday games and they don't really stand out.
| Group | Games | Average payout | Average odds | Average price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holiday-themed games | 186 | 68.8% | 1 in 3.99 | $6.72 |
| Everything else | 4,067 | 69.4% | 1 in 3.99 | $9.89 |
The odds are identical to two decimal places and the payout gap is 0.6 points. The price gap is $3.17, and it explains the payout gap on its own, because cheaper tickets return less almost everywhere.
Priced to be handed out
A holiday lineup is built for a different purchase. People buy several at once to hand to other people, so lotteries weight the seasonal games toward $1, $2, and $5, where a stack of tickets costs what one premium ticket would.
That pricing carries the usual cost. Payout climbs with price across the board, so a rack of $2 holiday tickets returns closer to 65 cents on the dollar while a $20 ticket returns about 75. Buying the seasonal design instead of the price point is a choice about the gift, not the odds.
One thing does work in a holiday buyer's favor. The games launch together and get pulled in the new year, so during the season they are near the start of their runs with full prize pools. What a game has left is the number that changes while the payout on the back stays fixed.
If the gift is the point, the seasonal rack is fine. If the value is the point, the current rankings will name a better ticket in the same store.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are holiday scratch-offs a better deal?
No, and they are not worse either. Across 186 holiday-themed US games the average payout is 68.8% against 69.4% for everything else, and both groups win on one ticket in 3.99. The main difference is price, since holiday games average $6.72 against $9.89.
Why are holiday scratch-offs cheaper?
They are designed to be bought in quantity as gifts and stocking stuffers, so lotteries weight the seasonal lineup toward $1, $2, and $5 tickets. Cheaper tickets pay back less as a rule, which is why the holiday average payout lands slightly below the rest.
When do holiday scratch-offs go on sale?
Most state lotteries launch their holiday lineup in late October and November and pull the games in the new year. Because the games launch together, their prize pools are full at the same time, which is the best moment in their run.
Phil Nageotte is a writer covering scratch-off odds, expected value, prize data, and more. He joined ScratchCheck in 2026 after years of tracking lottery payouts in spreadsheets of his own.
