Mega Millions odds in 2026: every prize, and how often each one has actually been won
Mega Millions has cost $5 a play since its April 2025 redesign, and the jackpot odds are 1 in 290,472,336. Each ticket now includes a random multiplier that boosts the smaller prizes. Here are the official odds for each prize, next to how many times each one has actually been won in the 161 drawings from April 8, 2025, through October 20, 2026. Figures are as of October 21, 2026.
| Match | Odds (1 in) | Prize with 2x | Prize with 10x | Times won since April 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 + Mega Ball | 290,472,336 | Jackpot | Jackpot | 7 |
| 5 | 12,629,232 | $2,000,000 | $10,000,000 | 80 |
| 4 + Mega Ball | 893,761 | $20,000 | $100,000 | 1,089 |
| 4 | 38,859 | $1,000 | $5,000 | 26,615 |
| 3 + Mega Ball | 13,965 | $400 | $2,000 | 75,447 |
| 3 | 607 | $20 | $100 | 1,720,079 |
| 2 + Mega Ball | 665 | $20 | $100 | 1,573,028 |
| 1 + Mega Ball | 86 | $14 | $70 | 12,202,687 |
| Mega Ball only | 35 | $10 | $50 | 29,706,825 |
Players pick five numbers from 1 to 70 and a Mega Ball from 1 to 24. Adding up the odds of all nine prizes gives about a 1 in 23 chance of winning something per play. The multiplier is drawn at purchase. It is 2x about 1 in 2.13 times, 3x 1 in 3.2, 4x 1 in 8, 5x 1 in 16, and 10x 1 in 32, and it never touches the jackpot. The cheapest win, the Mega Ball alone, pays at least $10, double the ticket price, according to the Mega Millions prize chart. California pays non-jackpot prizes on a pari-mutuel basis, so its amounts differ.
Seven jackpots were hit in those 161 drawings: $112 million on April 18, 2025, $348 million on June 27, $980 million on November 14, $90 million on December 2, $533 million on March 10, 2026, $60 million on March 17, and $800 million on July 28, which a Bradenton Wawa ticket won. Match 5 paid 80 times, worth $2 million or more each outside California. The jackpot stands at an estimated $433 million, $178.6 million in cash, for Friday, October 23. Our Mega Millions analysis tracks the cash value and expected return, and this piece looks at whether the $5 price delivered bigger jackpots.
How we did this. Odds, prize amounts, multiplier odds, and number ranges are from the Mega Millions prize chart. Times won add the winner counts in the official results of all 161 drawings from April 8, 2025, through October 20, 2026, as stored in our draw database. The odds of any prize add the probability of each prize level. The current jackpot is from our draw data on October 21, 2026.
Sources
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the odds of winning the Mega Millions jackpot?
One in 290,472,336 per $5 play. The odds of winning any prize are about 1 in 23, and the most common win is matching just the Mega Ball, about 1 in 35, which pays $10 to $50 depending on the multiplier.
How does the Mega Millions multiplier work now?
Since April 2025, every $5 play includes a random multiplier of 2x, 3x, 4x, 5x, or 10x that applies to all prizes except the jackpot. A 2x comes up about 1 in 2.13 plays and a 10x about 1 in 32.
How often is the Mega Millions jackpot won?
Seven times in the 161 drawings from April 8, 2025, through October 20, 2026, according to draw results. The largest was $980 million on November 14, 2025, and the most recent was $800 million on July 28, 2026.
Phil Nageotte is a writer covering scratch-off odds, expected value, prize data, and more. He joined ScratchCheck in 2026 after years of tracking lottery payouts in spreadsheets of his own.
